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August 19, 2015
Greetings: In this issue: Dangers posed by artificial intelligence. Advances in light-based technology. Driverless lawn mowers. The top social media site for increasing sales of goods and services. "Summoning the Demon?"As money continues to pour into R&D of artificial intelligence, alarm bells are sounding about the growing likelihood of making computers and robots too smart for our own good. "Some awfully bright people are genuinely worried about AI," Gary Marcus, a research psychologist at New York University, recently wrote. Scenarios include AI systems that become self-aware and able to replicate themselves across online networks for self-preservation, becoming impossible to stop. Though such possibilities may still seem like science fiction to lay folks, experts who work in the field are having serious discussions about them. With autonomous, or self-driving, cars and other machines capable of making their own decisions, drawing closer, this question looms larger: What if AI-powered goals are not what humans intended? New R&D work is beginning to focus on eliminating risks associated with making computers too smart. Thirty-seven projects recently received $7 million. Some of the money is coming from Tesla CEO Elon Musk, who has warned that giving rise to artificial intelligence is like "summoning the demon." Among such work: Finding ways to reduce threats to financial systems, developing a code of ethics for AI systems and making robots safer. One area of continued focus will be the military's use of autonomous killer robots, including drones. Look for both the Department of Defense and the National Science Foundation to step up and back AI safety research in coming years. Government regulators will also start to consider the potential dangers of artificial intelligence in other, broader ways. But American companies will fight tooth and nail against any regulations or restrictions that global competitors won't have to abide by. Why all the hand-wringing? For one thing, private companies control much of AI's funding, mostly in secretive labs where AI work and testing occur without oversight by some of the tech world's best minds. Facebook, for example, has hired many of the world's top AI researchers in the field of deep learning. Google has researchers working on computer networks that mimic the brain's complex network of neurons. Uber is ramping up R&D with the help of 40 researchers it recently poached from Carnegie Mellon University's robotics center. Microsoft, IBM and Amazon also have a lot of skin in the game with scores of AI researchers on board. And those are just the big players; the field is also flush with many start-ups pursuing cutting-edge research. The research has led to many advances in just the past few years. In many cases, commercialization of AI-fueled products won't fly without protections against systems run amok: Driverless cars and robots for home use come quickly to mind. But as current and past breaches in computer security systems have shown, making systems as resistant to hackers as possible is an inherently risky business. To be sure, developing truly advanced human-brain-like computer systems still relies on a series of mind-blowing breakthroughs, each akin to harnessing nuclear energy. Experts say systems that are as smart as humans are at least many decades away. The human brain is unique in that it has massive computational power that uses just tiny amounts of energy. So far, no computer comes close. Moreover, scientists still underestimate the human brain when it comes to breadth of intelligence. To get machines closer to mimicking the human brain, advances are needed in neuroscience, computer chip design, machine learning and robotics, to name a few. "Each one of these breakthroughs could happen with almost no warning signs," says Stuart Russell, professor of computer science at University of California, Berkeley. Among important research projects under way: Studies to better understand how the brain actually works. Development of computer chips that can process memory and storage simultaneously, and at low power. And programming robots that learn as they go. Other breakthroughs are yet to be identified. But advanced AI systems that perform at even somewhat less than human brainpower have the potential to be incredibly robust, making it likely that within this century humankind will have to deal with AI systems that can pose serious threats to humanity. Note some recent musings by technology gurus about the looming impact of artificial intelligence. "I think we should be very careful about artificial intelligence. If I were to guess what our biggest existential threat is, it's probably that." -- Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla and CEO and chief technology officer of SpaceX. Lighting the FutureThe U.S. plans to step up efforts to leapfrog work by other nations in advancing light-based technology via a new federal photonics program expected to pay dividends down the road. R&D of photonics -- the study of light-based technology -- will be key to creating next-generation touch screens, optical fiber, radar, lasers, medical imaging and more. "The problem is these optical elements are made in onesies and twosies," says Alan Willner, a photonics professor at the University of Southern California and steering committee chairman of the National Photonics Initiative, a trade association. The new federal program aims to stress collaboration that will pull together today's fragmented approach in the U.S., which is slowing innovation and raising costs of new products. The effort will channel $610 million in public and private funds into photonics research, creating standards, boosting capacity and making the technology available to companies small and large—all key to a flourishing industry. Such an approach figures to benefit a wide range of industries, including defense, telecommunications, precision manufacturing and health care. One key focus: Building future computer chips with photonics technology. Mass-producing light-based integrated circuits would advance chip technology along its historical path of exponential growth, which drives down costs for increasingly better chips. Researchers are hunting for new chip designs as limits are being reached for today's designs and materials. And the importance of photonics goes beyond the chips themselves. IBM's plans for its tiniest transistors yet require cheaper and better light-based technology that can etch the chip design onto pieces of silicon. Fostering a robust, homegrown photonics sector will ripple through the economy. Homegrown manufacturing in high-tech sectors provides a great boost to domestic innovation of all kinds. China plus countries in Europe and elsewhere are also spending big to advance photonics. "This is a huge issue of global competition," says Willner. The new federal program, being called the Manufacturing Innovation Institute for Integrated Photonics, is based in Rochester, N.Y., and includes 55 companies, such as Boeing, Optimax, Hewlett-Packard, Harris Corp. and Raytheon. It also includes 20 universities and labs, 33 community colleges and other schools, and 16 nonprofits. Look for surging demand ahead for additional workers in photonics, optics and related technology. Companies such as Google have secretly recruited students from top-notch universities to work on photonics-related projects, such as its burgeoning fiber-optic Internet service. Other technology companies will expand similar recruiting efforts. Tech TidbitsA wireless, autonomous lawn mower has the OK from federal regulators. Though the robot, built by Mass.-based iRobot, is limited to home use, its approval by the Federal Communications Commission opens the door to larger commercial versions down the road. Sellers of such mowers will include iRobot, John Deere and Honda. Which social media site has the most potential to help businesses increase sales? Facebook, according to a recent survey of 500 of the fastest-growing private U.S. companies. Though executives see promise, there's huge room to grow. Forty-four percent say that less than 1% of sales come through social media sites. Sincerely, View the archive of past Alerts issues
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